Value Pick of the Week

No Value Pick of the Week this week. It’s not uncommon to have stretches with no picks when the market’s going up, and particularly when the market is going up to record highs, due to the criteria of the stock beginning to rebound off a dip.

Market Summary

The S&P 500 gained about 2.3% for the week, closing at another new all-time record high of 7,398.93 on Friday — its sixth consecutive weekly gain, the longest winning streak since 2024. Here’s what drove it:

  • Strong Corporate Earnings - Of the 440 S&P 500 (88%) companies that had reported Q1 results by week’s end, 83% topped analysts’ earnings estimates — well above the long-term average of about 67%. It’s not just about tech.
  • AI Infrastructure Spending Optimism - Nvidia (NVDA) climbed 8.4% and Goldman Sachs estimated that AI-related investment would drive roughly 40% of S&P 500 earnings growth this year.
  • Iran Ceasefire Hopes - Stocks surged mid-week after Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran were nearing a deal to end the war, including a moratorium on nuclear enrichment.
  • A Stronger-Than-Expected Jobs Report - The U.S. added 115,000 jobs in April, well above expectations for just 55,000–65,000, while unemployment held steady at 4.3%. This reinforced the view that the labor market remains resilient despite geopolitical headwinds.

Past Picks

Our past picks picked up 0.9% versus the S&P 500, a welcome event after two weeks of losing ground. Six of our picks moved more than 10% during the week.

Notable Movers (±10%)

📉 Cencora (COR) - tumbled 14.1%

  • The selloff was triggered by Cencora’s fiscal Q2 results missing expectations, with investors focusing on a significant revenue shortfall and negative commentary about its largest U.S. segment.
  • Revenue for the quarter came in at $78.36 billion, well below the $81.09 billion analysts expected, and EPS of $4.75 missed the consensus estimate of $4.82.
  • The U.S. Healthcare Solutions segment was impacted by branded-drug price cuts, lower sales to a large mail-order client, and pricing pressures.
  • Despite the misses, the company raised its full-year FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $17.65–$17.90. However, investors interpreted the raised EPS guidance as insufficient to offset the revenue concerns.
  • Shares hit a new 52-week low following the report, with Evercore ISI lowering its price target to $300 from $360, which represents a 14.9% gain from where it is now.

📉 NAPCO Security Technologies (NSSC) fell 12.6%

  • NAPCO reported fiscal Q3 2026 results with revenue rising 11.8%, but also disclosed a $16 million litigation settlement charge that pushed the quarter to a GAAP net loss.
  • While recurring service revenue (RSS) was up 15.4% year over year and carried a 90.4% gross margin, broader valuation concerns also weighed on the stock alongside the litigation charge.
  • NSSC has been very volatile, moving more than 10% in a week on numerous occasions.

📈 ASML Holding (ASML) rose 11.6%

  • ASML’s stock rose, partly due to the continuing positive effect of its strong Q1 2026 results from mid-April, which met the higher end of guidance, and the company’s upward revision of full-year 2026 revenue guidance.
  • Berenberg Bank reaffirmed its Buy rating on ASML, and Erste Group raised its FY2026 earnings estimate, both reinforcing confidence in the company’s trajectory.
  • ASML’s CEO stated the company’s monopoly position in extreme ultraviolet lithography remains intact as AI-driven chip demand stays strong.
  • The broader AI infrastructure investment wave continued to drive demand for ASML’s equipment, with industry projections pointing to a multi-trillion-dollar semiconductor growth cycle.

📈 Oracle (ORCL) gained 14.0%

  • Oracle secured a classified AI deal with the U.S. Department of Defense on May 4, sending shares up roughly 6%, while also announcing a $1.65 billion six-year supply agreement with Australian modular data center maker Datapod and a 1.4 GW data center facility partnership with DTE Energy in Michigan.
  • Wedbush Securities, a 71 year old Los Angeles based investment banker, initiated Oracle with an Outperform rating and a $225 price target (+14.8%), calling it a “foundational” AI cloud provider and pointing to a $553 billion backlog and a large OpenAI cloud agreement expected to drive ~$30 billion in revenue over five years.
  • Oracle also got a lift from strong quarterly results and raised outlooks from SaaS peers like Atlassian and Twilio, which boosted the entire enterprise software sector.
  • Oracle and partners finalized $16 billion in funding for a three-building Michigan data center campus designed to deliver more than 1 GW of AI capacity, with Oracle also fully funding battery storage with DTE Energy.

📈 Lam Research (LRCX) jumped 14.5%

  • Twice recommended Lam reported strong FY26 Q3 results with both revenue and EPS exceeding expectation of $1.47, alongside operating margin expansion, and guided June-quarter revenue to $6.60 billion — implying continued step-up in demand.
  • AMD’s blockbuster earnings report confirmed that AI infrastructure spending remains robust, with AMD’s Data Center revenue up 57% year over year. This lifted the entire semiconductor supply chain, including equipment makers like Lam.
  • A wave of analyst upgrades and increased price targets followed — multiple firms revised to Buy or Outperform, reflecting growing confidence in Lam’s role in AI-driven capacity expansion.
  • Compared with consensus estimates, Lam’s FY26 Q4 revenue guidance came in roughly 10% higher at the midpoint, and earnings guidance 15% higher.
  • A headwind to watch: Lam’s substantial revenue exposure to China (~34% of total revenue) increases its vulnerability to geopolitical tensions and potential export control risks.

📈 CrowdStrike (CRWD) surged 15.8%

  • CrowdStrike, a three time recommendation, launched “Jet,” a new mobile app aimed at enhancing partner engagement and deal management, which investors responded to positively.
  • They also launched Falcon OverWatch for Defender, extending its managed threat-hunting capabilities to Microsoft endpoint customers.
  • Strong underlying fundamentals continued to fuel optimism, including 24% ARR growth and net new ARR surging 47% in the latest quarter, alongside management adding $500 million to the share-holder friendly buyback program.
  • Despite the rally, concerns about AI-driven disruption and the upcoming fiscal Q1 2027 earnings release (June 3) continue to create some volatility in the stock.

View the complete Value Picks Tracker →